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Expecting target of 9,850 levels for Nifty in short term: Devang Shah

Devang Shah/Mumbai 19 Jun 17 | 08:10 AM

NIFTY - CLOSE-9588.05 (17.06.17)

Market is consolidating in narrow range from last three weeks. It’s consolidating in narrow range of 9,550-9,700 levels on Nifty. It made a high of 9,709.30 levels on Nifty and 31,430.32 levels on Sensex. It looks like rime-wise bullish consolidation or in other words time wise correction in market. Nifty closed first time weekly in negative territory after rally of preceding five weeks. One can expect market to trend towards higher levels targets as mentioned below in short to medium term till it reverses.

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Although from wave count perspectives, it looks like clearly extended wave-III of 5 as per weekly chart attached & will slow & steady trending towards its destiny of conservative final levels targets for short to medium term as mentioned below. I feel it’s ‘slow but steady extended trend’, it’s very good sign from over all view perspectives, indicating This strong trend will last for possibly for further higher levels targets & for more time from medium term perspectives.

Short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 9,269 levels and is expecting target of 9,850 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,327 levels and is expecting targets in the range of 10,300-10,700 levels in medium term.

I am observing, we are seeing strong move on Nifty of around 200 points after every consolidation as per chart attached. So, I feel till 9550 levels holds we will get it any time strong move from this consolidation towards short term targets levels. And I feel most probably, it will in this month only till expiry. I feel market will do time wise correction rather than price wise in this rally. Therefore, any kind of decline or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term perspectives.

From Time cycle perspectives, it looks like the rally which has started from beginning of Jan quarter-2017 is going to continue till at least June quarter-2017 as per quarterly analysis chart attached. So bulls will dominate for the entire month of June as per this analysis & Nifty will not go below 9200 levels & we are going to see higher levels target as mentioned below in short to medium term. Any decline or short term consolidation is buying opportunity for short to medium term perspectives till trend reverses.

  

Nifty Bank also closed weekly marginally in negative territory. It looks like time wise consolidation or correction on Nifty Bank for short term. It also looks like extended move on wave-III of (5) from overall wave count perspectives as per chart attached. It has strong support around 22460 levels, till it holds one can expect higher levels targets till 25000 levels in short term & 27000 levels medium term as per chart attached.

Reiterating same thing once again that, Dow Theory is the only simple tool to help to ride such kind extended bull market rally. It worked well in past as well as per chart attached particularly in un-chartered territory. Therefore, not to expect major correction in short term till Dow Theory supports hold. We may possibly extend more for couple of months till medium term targets levels without any major correction in such kind of liquidly driven extended bull market rally beyond fundamentals.

9400- 9700 levels in strong support & Resistance levels respectively on Nifty based on derivative option open interest data for current month series. Any kind of short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term investor. One can expect higher levels targets in medium to long term.

Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD went in to SELL indicating weakness but one should wait for price reversal to conclude short term reversal till that one should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses from trading perspectives. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to possible sharp correction till 9,075/9,000 levels on Nifty & 29,259/29,137 levels on Sensex in short term. 

Stock Picks:

ACC – BUY

CLOSE – Rs 1,635.80

TARGET – Rs 1,700-1,800

ACC closed the week in a positive territory. It’s looks like end of short term consolation in wave-IV & it has still wave-V Up pending. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. It also closed above 20 DMA. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 1,570 for the target of 1,700-1,800 levels in short term.

OFSS - BUY

CLOSE – Rs 3,687

TARGET – Rs 3,800-3,850

OFSS closed the week in positive territory. Its looks like end of medium term correction. It also closed above 40 WEMA. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. Its momentum indicators are in buy. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 3576 for the target of 3800-3850 levels in short term.

HDFC LTD - BUY

CLOSE – Rs 1,639.50

TARGET – Rs 1,685

HDFC LTD closed daily in positive territory. It’s outperforming in short term. It still looks like wave-IV consolidation on daily chart & wave-V up is still pending for higher levels targets in short term. It closed above 20 DMA. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with stop loss of 1624 for the target of 1685 in short term.

PIDILITE - BUY

CLOSE – Rs 815

TARGET – Rs 840

PIDILITE closed weekly in positive territory. It has still wave-V Up pending on daily chart. Its daily momentum indicators are in buy. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with stop loss of 796 for the target of 840 in short term.

TECH MAHINDRA - BUY

CLOSE – Rs 390

TARGET – Rs 402-412

TECH MAHINDRA closed weekly in positive territory. It looks like end of medium term correction. Its daily momentum indicators are in buy. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with stop loss of 380  for the target of 402-412 in short term.

Devang Shah: The author of www.trendtechno.com (Trade with Trend) and an independent market analyst

Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above

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Sensex

Company Price Gain (%)
Bharti Airtel473.852.66
Lupin1,052.500.34
Infosys927.100.29
M & M1,374.450.23
Asian Paints1,180.200.02

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