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Nifty outlook and six trading ideas for today's trade by Devang Shah

Devang Shah/Mumbai 13 Nov 17 | 08:17 AM

NIFTY      

CLOSE- 10321.75 (10.11.17)

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Market remained choppy with time-wise consolidation mode for the entire week. It closed the week in a negative territory at the end of weekly trading session. It still appears a time-wise consolidation phase for market for the short term. It made a high of 10,490.45 levels & low of 10,254.10 levels on Nifty during the week. 


One can expect market to trend towards upper end of channel as per chart attached towards short term targets levels as mentioned below in near term till it reverses. Trader should buy stock specific and book profits at regular intervals. 

  

Market is extending towards upper end of channel in the short term as expected. It made a high of 10,461.70 levels on Nifty and 33,733.71 levels on Sensex so far in this rally. It closed the second consecutive week in the positive territory. Nifty Bank finally confirmed a breakout from consolidation range on upside as anticipated. One should expect market to trend towards short term targets levels till it reverses. Trader should buy stock specific and book profits at regular intervals. 


Short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades below 10,124 levels and expecting target of 10,600-10,800 levels in the short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and is expecting targets in the range of 12,000-12,200 levels in the medium term.


Although it looks like very high levels both from technical (Extended Rally) & fundamental perspectives (Valuation wise) but many stocks are giving fresh breakouts from long consolidation. Therefore, it’s advisable to be stock-specific at current levels with proper risk management approach. 


I have drawn channel on both Nifty & Sensex weekly charts. It looks like high possibility of extension of this rally till upper end of channel as per weekly chart towards revised short term targets levels as mentioned earlier. Typically, in such kind of bull market, wave-3 completes and touches upper end of channel before any kind of major price-wise correction. It looks like high possibility to me at current levels of market till short term reverses. It will become strong fast and furious rally in this phase of market. 


Bank Nifty also consolidated in thin range during week. It has broken out form consolidation range. It made a high of 25,715 levels so far in this rally. One can expect targets of around 27,000 levels on Bank Nifty after the breakout from consolidation in the short term. 24,800 level strong support & reversal levels for Bank Nifty in the short term.


10,200 is strong support and 10,500 is strong resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data so far for October month series. Market is going to be volatile ahead of result season this month. Any kind of short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.


Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD went in to SELL showing weakness for short term trend but one should wait for price wise reversal to finally conclude short term trend reversal till that One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to price wise short term correction towards 9680 levels on nifty & 31081.83 levels on sensex in short term.


Short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades below 10124 levels and expecting target of 10750-10800 levels in short term.Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and is expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium-term.


Stock Picks: 


NTPC-BUY

CLOSE – Rs- 178

TARGET – Rs 190-200


NTPC closed the week in a negative territory. It consolidated in the thin range in short term. It’s still trading above 40-DMA. Risk reward is favourable to buy at current levels. Its weekly momentum indicators are in BUY. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 172 for the target of Rs 190-200 in short-term. 


TCS- BUY

CLOSE – Rs- 2710

TARGET – Rs 2790-2860


TCS closed the week in a positive territory. It’s has broken out for medium term consolidation. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 2650 for the target of Rs 2790-2860 in short-term. 


DABUR - BUY

CLOSE – Rs- 341.25

TARGET – Rs 360


DABUR closed the week in a positive territory. It has consolidated in thin range in short term. It’s still trading above 20-DMA. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 326 for the target of Rs 360 in short-term. 


TATA CHEM- BUY

CLOSE – Rs-720.80 

TARGET – Rs 770-820


TATA CHEM closed the day in a positive territory. It has wave-V Up pending on weekly chart. It managed to find support at 40DMA. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with stop loss of 686 for the target of  790-820 levels in short term.


L&T- BUY

CLOSE – Rs 1268

TARGET – Rs 1330


L&T closed the week in a positive territory. It has broken out of short term consolidation range. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with stop loss of 1230 for the target of 1330 levels in short term.


M&M- BUY

CLOSE – Rs 1394.95

TARGET – Rs 1430-1500


M&M closed the week in a negative territory. It closed above 20-DMA. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk reward is favorable to buy at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of 1345 for the target of 1430-1500 levels in the short term.


Devang Shah: The author of www.trendtechno.com (Trade with Trend) and an independent market analyst

Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.Consultant & Advisors in the world of Financial Market.

Disclaimer: The analyst may have a position in the scrip mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.

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