Wkly Tech Analysis: Bears to tighten grip below 4,825
The markets were relatively calm for most part of the trading week, even as they traded with a downward bias before eventually logging significant losses on Friday. The Sensex touched a high of 16,544 in the first half of the week, thereafter, the BSE benchmark index tumbled to a low of 15,933.
The Sensex finally ended below the 16,000-mark, down 253 points at 15,965, for the first time since January 7 on a weekly basis.
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Among the index stocks, Tata Motors slumped nearly 17 per cent to Rs 225. Jindal Steel and Power, Sterlite Industries India, Larsen and Toubro, Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), ICICI Bank and Maurti Suzuki India shed four-six per cent each. On the other hand, Hindalco Industries rallied over four per cent to Rs 116. Tata Power, Coal India and Wipro were the other prominent gainers.
As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex has near support of around 15,850 level, below which the index can slide to 15,600 and 15,200-odd levels. On the other hand, on the upside, the index can scale to 16,850-17,225.
The quarterly Fibonacci charts indicate that the Sensex may break the 15,800-mark and test its next support at around 15,450 level. Next week, the index may seek support at 15,730-15,585, while facing resistance at 16,200-16,345.
The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty moved in a range of 190-odd points. The index from a high of 5,020 slipped to a low of 4,832, and then finally settled with a loss of 79 points at 4,920.
The 200-WMA (weekly moving average) is currently placed at 4,825, and the bears are likely to have the upper hand below 4,825. The daily and the monthly momentum oscillators are also in favour of the bears, hence watch out for a significant fall in the month of June. In case of significant weakness, the nearest support for the index is around 4,730, below which the next major support exist around 4,600 level.