Web Special: Evening commodity update
Amid the unending woes of Euro Zone debt crisis, commodities were seen paring their earlier losses. Now, markets are waiting for a slew of economic data releases that are scheduled for today and tomorrow, to assess the global economic situation. Spot gold, following an initial decline during morning trades started to move up, extending the previous session’s impressive recovery from 1530 levels. Rebound in Euro on anticipation of an Irish vote in favor of Europe’s fiscal pact, helped gold to sustain its gains. However, prices were on its course to register losses for the fourth consecutive month. In MCX, the yellow metal was seen trimming the initial gains by afternoon, following the rupee, which retreated after hitting a fresh record low of Rs 56.5200 against the US dollar. Base metals continued to reel under pressure due to the feeble financial situation in Euro Zone and slowing economic growth in China. However, a rise in euro improved the market sentiments to certain extent. In LME, copper was seen regaining some for its lost ground after hitting its lowest in 2012. Meanwhile, it was on its way to post losses for the third successive month. Similar trend in base metals were witnessed in the Indian markets too, yet currency fluctuations helped to limit the losses. Amid concerns over the demand for crude oil and its rising inventories, an upturn in crude oil prices were witnessed. Nymex crude oil rose after hitting its lowest level since November last year. EIA is expected to report a build up in crude oil inventories for the tenth week running later today. Meanwhile, API data showed a rise.
Events in Focus
The investor sentiments remained unsettled as Spain-driven turmoil continued to engulf market mood. The evening session could pack a punch with some heavyweight economic indicators scheduled for release from the U.S. The ADP employment change is estimated to show that companies in the U.S added more people to payrolls and it will be a sigh of relief for market watchers in midst of Euro crisis. A positive employment change could also be an indication of better things to expect from Friday’s Non Farm payrolls. Also in the limelight this evening is the personal consumption numbers from the U.S. With spending contributing to a significant proportion of growth, better than expected numbers could validate recuperation for the U.S economy. However, any incongruity in these data could
have significant bearing on the commodity price movements. With Chinese economy going through a lean patch, all eyes are glued to the government manufacturing figures scheduled for release on Friday, which could further validate the eroding growth in the world’s second largest economy. On the whole, European sentiments are more likely to top headlines and weigh on as seen over past few weeks.
Last day’s steep rise confirmed that buyers are still active in counter, so moving forward break above 29210 could substantiate further buying pressure towards 29270/390 or even higher towards 29500.But failed attempts to break 29210 region could entice fresh selling towards 29030/28940 or even lower towards 28800.
Broad consolidation have been progressing inside 55100-53300 regions for the last few days. Either side breakout would suggest fresh directional moves. However, for the day we expect an initial dip followed by a turn higher.
Even broad weak bias is intact, prices have to clear below the consolidation support of 421 to strengthen the momentum. A direct dip below 416 would signal strong bearishness again. Rallies above 431 will be an upside turn around point.
Breaking the key support of 921 is required to continue the prevailing selling momentum towards 902 or even more. Else we could see prices turned higher towards 940.
Prices have entered into a negative territory, but we cannot miscalculate the possibility of an initial pullback towards 5000 region for fresh selling towards 4930/4880. Anyhow, for intraday unexpected rise above 5020 could lure mild buying momentum to the counter.
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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