Activity amidst much volatility
During the weeks under review (October 26-November 22), the markets remained very volatile. The benchmark indices registered their biggest weekly loss in six months on broad-based selling, as investors turned cautious ahead of the winter session of Parliament and US fiscal cliff issues. Contraction in the Index of Industrial Production by 0.4 per cent in September also weighed on sentiment.
Global risk appetite remained frail on concerns over an exacerbating European debt crisis, coupled with looming fears over US taxation issues that might lead to taxation increases and automatic spending cuts that could drag the world’s biggest economy into recession. However, this week, some recovery was seen as manufacturing surveys in China and the United States boosted confidence over the global economic recovery. Five of the six fund managers remained active.
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A K PRABHAKAR
Sr VP (Equity Research), Anand Rathi Financial Services
Prabhakar bought HSIL, Thermax, EID Parry, GIC Housing Finance, BASF India and Bharat Forge during the period under review. However, he cleared off Emami, Hathway Cable & Datacom with seven to 17 per cent gains. Prabhakar maintains his cautious stand on the markets, as he opines that if the government succeeds and implements the various reforms announced thus far, then the market can sustain at current levels. Otherwise, the Nifty can correct back to 5,200 levels. Housing finance, realty, private banks and fertiliser stocks are current areas of interest. His net worth is Rs 10.64 lakh, up 6.4 per cent. (Click for tables)
Head, Technical Research, Angel Broking
Kulkarni added Jindal South West Holdings, Speciality Restaurants, Jindal Steel & Power, Lovable Lingerie, Reliance Infrastructure, Ranbaxy Laboratories and CEAT to his portfolio. On the other hand, he managed some damage control by offloading Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Aban Offshore, Punjab National Bank, Bank of India and Jindal South West Holdings, with a loss in the range of 0.5-5 per cent.
Kulkarni says we’re seeing price damage, along with a time-wise consolidation. On a technical basis, it can be said that the chances of a bounce from current levels of the index are significantly high. If the market shows strength, an ideal situation would be a top at 5,777; otherwise, a sideways range of 5,500 to 5,800 is likely to continue. The net worth is Rs 10.70 lakh, up 7.04 per cent.
Fund Manager, Centrum Wealth
Fernandes made a couple of changes like picking up Reliance Capital and Balmer Lawrie & Company for his portfolio, while he booked profits in Axis Bank and BASF India, with gains between eight and 25 per cent.
Fernandes expects the equity market to be volatile during the beginning of the winter session of Parliament, after which the markets will recover on account of an anticipated political realignment, enabling the government to get approval for foreign direct investment in retailing and also possibly pass other crucial economic reform bills. On the sectoral front, he is positive on old private sector banks, pharmaceuticals, fast moving consumer goods and select tyre companies. Fernandes’ net worth is Rs 10.65 lakh, up 6.5 per cent.
CMD, CNI Research
Ostwal remained inactive through the four weeks. He will be looking out for the roll session, expiring next Thursday. He expects the government to sail through any no-confidence motion. Also, he sees the latest announcement to allow Life Insurance Corporation to increase its holding in equity up to 30 per cent from the current 10 per cent as a move to complete disinvestment, which will help manage the fiscal deficit.
He is hopeful the Nifty will touch 6,000 by December. Some of his picks for the current markets include RIL, SBI, Century, Bombay Dyeing, Bombay Burmah, IRB Infra, Siemens, United Phosperous, DLF, HDIL and JP Associates. For macro play, he’d stick with rate-sensitives such as automobiles and banking, which will remain firm till the time rate cut happens. Ostwal’s net worth is Rs 10.27 lakh, 2.7 per cent.
Fund Manager, Emkay Investment Managers
Shah made some quick moves on the buy side by picking Reliance Industries, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Biocon, Cipla, PTC India, Max India, Whirlpool of India and LIC Housing Finance. On his sell list were Bank of Baroda, Sundaram Finance, DCW, Apollo Tyres, Sun TV Network and Reliance Industries.
Events in the Parliament session and concerns again emerging on Greece, coupled with the slowing of growth in Western economies, are some factors which’d give a direction to the markets. He sees some value emerging in select pharma, media, cement, banking and automobile stocks. The net worth is Rs 10.74 lakh, up 7.4 per cent.
Sr VP and co-head equities, Motilal Oswal AMC - PMS
Badshah was the most active during these four weeks. He bought into several stocks, such as Divis Laboratories, Maruti Suzuki India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, United Spirits, Eicher Motors, Unitech, Bajaj Corp, Anant Raj Industries, State Bank of India, Anant Raj Industries, TV18 Broadcast, Sun TV Network and Bajaj Auto.
He also exited Tata Steel, Crompton Greaves, Divis Laboratories, Cummins India, Shasun Pharmaceuticals, Sun TV Network, OnMobile Global, United Spirits and Multi Commodity Exchange of India.
Badshah expects the markets to be choppy during the Parliament session. He sees the Nifty to be supported at around 5,600 levels on the downside and to gradually move up. Sectors such as real estate, media and select autos and telecom are some areas he’d like to invest in.
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